How many people live in Poland no one knows. We all pay for it

Kacper Kępiński

23 of June '23

Report by the Union of Polish Metropolises and the Batory Foundation

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Population measured by registrations and the National Census—these are the tools by which we should know how many people live in Poland, what age they are or what language they speak. However, can this data be trusted? A report by the Union of Polish Metropolises and the Batory Foundation points out discrepancies and questions the government data.

"Do we know how many of us there are?" is a just-published report by the Stefan Batory Foundation and the Union of Polish Metropolises, in which experts analyzed the methodology used to count Poland's population and the results of the latest National Census (Census). Strategic documents and policies on many areas of social life, investments in infrastructure or social services are based on the collected data. However, it turns out that demographic data is subject to a very large margin of error, and the Polish state has no idea how many people actually live in Poland. On a national scale, the differences begin to reach numbers expressed in millions and can be very pronounced locally.

36, 37, 38, 39 million....

The difference between the number of registered people and the population according to the census

37 million—that's how many people live in Poland according to the Central Statistical Office, if we accept the definition of resident, 38 million—according to the national definition. The first figure includes people living in Poland for a minimum of one year, but it is impossible to estimate how many foreigners have been reached. The second figure, between censuses strongly rooted in the registration register, is used in public policies. The registration register, on the other hand, is shrinking significantly—there are now about 36 million people with permanent registration. There is another number, and that is the personal-address register, repealed just before the start of the Census in 2021, according to which Poland was inhabited by 39 million people. So are there 36, 37, 38 or more than 39 million of us? Why are the differences so great and how do they concretely translate into our lives?

problematic migrations

share of emigration in the population according to the Central Statistical Office and foreigners living in Poland, pension contributions

As the authors of the report point out, one of the main reasons is migration. The influx of immigrants is concentrated in the largest metropolises and rapidly growing suburban municipalities. Local authorities' data on people „staying overnight” in their municipalities or counties is usually significantly higher than official data. For example—an independent estimate of the population of the city of Warsaw, based on Big Data, analyzing the average number of people staying overnight in Warsaw, gives figures starting at 2.1 million people against the CSO's estimate of 1.8 million and a significantly lower number of registered residents.

The number of Poles in exile is also significantly lower compared to the statistics of foreign statistical offices counting people with Polish citizenship in censuses conducted by them. According to the Census 2021, 1.45 million Poles are abroad for temporary residence, which roughly reflects the number of people with Polish citizenship shown only by censuses conducted in Germany and England and Wales.

For whom is the infrastructure?

Do we know how many of us there are? Report

Population, defined according to the national definition, significantly affects the calculation of budget subsidies for local governments, the planning of the pension system, school places, nurseries and hospitals, the design of infrastructure development. Thus, these are decisions that realistically affect the quality of life and the cost of maintaining public infrastructure. The number of recipients has a significant impact on the estimation of the cost of local services provided by municipalities, such as access to water supply, sewerage, road networks, public transportation. Some local governments experience an increase in population periodically, such as tourist municipalities, while others have experienced a marked increase in population as a result of migration. Some local governments are experiencing internal temporary migration related to employment. All such situations mean that the local government must be prepared to provide more local services than the number of residents would suggest.

Contentious Janosikowe

What does the population figure affect?

Inequalities should be equalized by Janosikowe, but unfortunately it is an imperfect tool. The Polish system is based on the per capita income of local government budgets and does not provide a current inventory of the actual number of local governments. In the case of payments to the so-called Janosikowe, which are mostly provided by large Polish cities, this underestimated population translates into increased payments to the state budget. Including foreigners and refugees in the number of residents used to calculate local government payments would reduce the amount of payments by 14 to 25%. The contributions of large cities and municipalities located in agglomeration areas, as well as land districts, would decrease the most. If the number of residents increased by the number of foreigners according to CSO estimates were included in the calculation system, the payment that Warsaw is obliged to make in 2023 would be about 25% lower (which is more than PLN 385 million). The Union of Polish Metropolises therefore indicates that Janosikowe is significantly overstated.

politicization of the data

Poland's population and the number of people with permanent registration

The political system has not kept up with demographics either—the State Election Commission has been requesting for some time now that the number of seats in each district be changed to accommodate changes in population. The provisions of the Electoral Code also make the distribution of seats per parliamentary constituency dependent on the number of residents in the electoral districts.

To a certain extent, the population also determines the division into electoral districts in Senate elections. These are not equal elections according to the Constitution, but there is a mechanism described in the Electoral Code to promote equality—it involves allocating Senate seats to provinces based on population. However, the changes would likely mean, for example, two additional seats for Warsaw, which in the case of the last election would have gone to KO and SLD. Such changes would thus potentially disadvantage those currently in power, who have the greatest support precisely in depopulated areas.

rolling census

Do we know how many of us there are? Report and postulated changes

The authors of the report try to make it clear that, as a country, we rely on a method of measuring the size and structure of the population designed in „methodologically simpler” times, when every citizen had to be registered somewhere, and „Polish society consisted of 99% Poles.” They point out that this measurement needs to be reformed faster than the census calendar—as the next survey is scheduled for 2031.

We are committed to a constructive and positive discussion, during which proposals are made for beneficial and feasible solutions.—emphasize the report's authors—The overarching goal is to build an efficient, flexible and effective public administration, which can efficiently carry out its daily tasks, as well as build strategies for the future, only if it is supported by adequate resources and up-to-date information.

The report's creators propose that the parallel use of two definitions of population numbers be discontinued, and that a rolling census be introduced in place of the current methods of balancing population numbers. A rolling census involves conducting a continuous survey that covers the entire country only after a specific cycle (e.g., several years) has been closed; it provides greater validity of the results due to the fact that the different waves are random sample surveys.

The report is available on the Batory Foundation website.