What future do developers see?

Wiktor Bochenek

09 of February '23

What does the future hold for developers?

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We've been hearing about problems in Poland's real estate market for several months - the energy crisis, geopolitical fluctuations and monetary policy have significantly reduced demand for loans. Much is also changing in terms of the challenges of the future and their impact on policy. What do developers think about this?

As part of our #ReportThursday series, we present documents, reports and guides on architecture, cities and local government that are certainly worth publicizing and promoting. "Foundations of the Future: Medium-term prospects for changes in the real estate market in Polish cities" was published by the Polish Association of Real Estate Developers in cooperation with Skanska and 4CF PnyX.

The report is foresight in nature - it focuses on looking at the real estate market through the prism of the predictions of the developers who took part in the survey. The study looked atthree different scenarios that involve the implementation of various solutions and trends, from the 15-minute city to automation or prefabrication.

What came out of the report? In many ways, developers in Poland are identified with horned devils, who the only things they do are housing developments with micro-apartments and post-apocalyptic playgrounds measuring one meter by one meter - this is a unique opportunity to take a closer look at their views.

"Foundations of the Future: Medium-term prospects for changes in the real estate market in Polish cities" was published by the Polish Association of Developers Companies in cooperation with Skanska and 4CF PnyX.

a solution for ad hoc

The first scenario, titled "Ad hocness," focuses on the influx of immigrants to cities, the role of medium-sized cities, the development of technology or planning issues. Eight questions were prepared, based on which a possible scenario was forecast. The survey took into account the problem of the energy crisis and the collapse of the real estate market.

Developers participating in the survey were unanimous about the cities' ability to cope with the influx of immigrants - more than 90% said that the cities would cope well. However, they were more skeptical about reducing urban depopulation through revitalization efforts and integrating immigrants into the Polish environment. They emphasized the development of metropolises, but noted the role of medium-sized cities.

The study was presented in three scenarios

Survey respondents expressedskepticism about the rapid advancement of construction technology, the increase in institutional investments (although their growth will be evident) or the development of heat sources, where system solutions will become less and less competitive. Such a scenario does not allow to bridge the housing gap, as stated by more than 63% of survey participants. The 15-minute cities are beginning to be seen as a solution, but they are closer to medium-sized cities. This opens the door to a discussion on the implementation of such solutions by developers, who have used these experiences rarely.

each question contains the sum resulting from the answers of the respondents

the way forward

Another scenario, "The Way Forward," focused on transportation, virtuality or type of development. Public transportation, according to developers, will become more important, although it will not affect the prevalence of individual transportation. Between the virtual and physical worlds - this separation will be more sublime. Single-family housing is expected to be more competitive with large cities, and suburbanization will increase. Developers are heralding a renaissance of factories - whose increased use is heralded by 76% of those surveyed.

Developers' skepticism also extends to the issue of narrowing the housing gap, which 68% of those surveyed say will not change. According to JLL's research, a maximum of 70,000 apartments are expected to be built in Poland throughout 2023. This is 100,000 mn less than in 2021.

Heavy precast concrete market in Poland

a place for discipline

The last scenario, entitled "Discipline," deals with revitalization solutions, robotization of the sector, participation in urban planning or coliving issues. Developers, although one would hardly expect otherwise from them, do not consider revitalization a priority. They have more faith in issues of automation of the construction sector. Developers, according to the survey, would like to have more influence on land use during the economic crisis, although at the same time they see the need for a participatory approach. As in those scenarios, reducing the housing gap is labeled impossible.

One topic raised several times in the survey was prefabrication

Who is this research addressed to?

Discussions about whether 15-minute cities are a viable idea, whether prefabrication is environmentally friendly and worthy of applications, and what will help bridge the housing gap in a meaningful way, can be more than just a sociological source. The Foresight study by PZFD and Skanska concludes with an attempt to reconcile various social groups, including authorities, NGOs, urban activists and developers themselves. The small manual shows us how a developer looking to do more than "squeeze PUMa" can benefit, but also a local government politician or activist who may care more about a healthy urban fabric.

According to PwC, the number of apartments rented in the Private Rented Sector will grow over the next few years

Even if housing policy will be crawling in the country on the Vistula River, and examples of patodewelepors built by "januszexes" described on the Internet will continue to be a laughing matter, this discussion is worth having - and it's hard to start a conversation when we don't know the directions and predictions of the interlocutor. In this case, the foresight study is really useful, even if we believe that institutional construction should have a larger process, developers should cooperate more than impose, and revitalization is not a finished project, it does not mean that the developer is our enemy.